Russian capacity to develop its offshore hydrocarbon resources in the Kara Sea: Arctic and global implications

Jon A. Skinner
Wed, 22 Apr 2026 17:56:43 PDT

Increasing seasonal ice free Arctic waters and market demand to expand hydrocarbon extraction to previously undeveloped offshore regions has accelerated an Arctic priority in national strategies and international forums. It is proposed that geo-strategically, the sheer size of the Kara Sea hydrocarbon fields is of a predictive magnitude great enough to impact the progression or regression of the Russian economy; and thereby have a predictive value on the capacity for Russian unilateral foreign policy decisions. Rosneft has released figures of a potential 30 to 40 billion barrels of recoverable undiscovered oil reserves in the South Kara Sea basin and significantly more in the more remote northern waters, representing the largest unexploited hydrocarbon potential remaining for the Russian Federation. There are also undercurrents of skepticism that the Russians may not achieve offshore production at the pace and or scale they envision. Though the direct economic contributions to the global economy of exploitation of Kara Sea hydrocarbons is likely not a game changer, the technological sophistication it will require and the level of cooperation and integration needed between the most advanced Western corporate techniques and Russian partners, could well be for Russian central state stability. In this context, hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea region lends itself to interdisciplinary study as a means to assess Russia's relative strategic stability. The research incorporated two primary tools to assess the drivers impacting successful Russian hydrocarbon development of its Kara Sea resources. The first was a survey-interview of experts and the second was the creation of scenario narratives (assisted by a workshop of Arctic experts and stakeholders). The four scenarios were designed to explore the complexity of the interplay of the drivers of hydrocarbon development in the Kara Sea, with the objective, of identifying plausible future decision points for planners and policy makers.