Multi-decadal variability of Atlantic water heat transports as seen in the community climate systems model version 3.0

Kara Sterling
Wed, 22 Apr 2026 17:33:19 PDT

Changes in oceanic heat transports from the North Atlantic to the Arctic, via Atlantic Water (AW), can have widespread impacts upon Arctic climate. Using a multi-century control simulation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Systems Model version 3.0 (CCSM3), the natural multi-decadal variability (MDV) of AW is characterized. Calculations of AW volume fluxes and heat transports into the Arctic are analyzed for the Svinøy transect, Fram Strait, and Barents Sea Opening (BSO), and compared with observations. Warm and cold phases of AW are examined through composite analysis, and quantified with respect to their effects on Arctic climate. The model captures several key features of AW, such as the overall circulation and depth of the AW core, but over-estimates AW temperatures by about 1 ⁰C. AW heat anomalies can be tracked from the Svinøy transect to the Arctic interior with a timescale of 13 years, which is comparable to observations. Composites reveal a deepening (shoaling) of the AW core during warm (cold) periods. Warm (cold) periods are also characterized by greater AW transports through the BSO (Fram Strait), implying the existence of an internal ocean feedback mechanism that helps to regulate oscillations of AW between warm/cold periods.