DETERMINATION OF VALUABLE AREAS FOR MIGRATORY SONGBIRDS ALONG THE EAST-ASIAN AUSTRALASIAN FLYWAY (EEAF), AND AN APPROACH FOR STRATEGIC CONSERVATION PLANNING

Maria Beiring
Wed, 22 Apr 2026 17:13:19 PDT

Having valuable high-quality stopover sites available for migratory birds is one of the key factors for the success of migration. However, beside the conservation of breeding and wintering grounds, the actual protection of valuable stopover sites has often been somewhat neglected. Overall 93 of 315 passerine species along the East-Asian Australasian Flyway (EEAF) are declining. That’s the highest overall number of threatened passerines on any known flyway. Additionally, the high human density in South-East Asia and the ongoing degradation of natural resources further poses a serious problem and threat to migratory songbirds and necessitates urgent action. This study aims to identify valuable areas for migratory songbirds along the vast EAAF (China, Japan, Korea, Far Eastern Russia and Alaska) and to develop a first approach for Strategic Conservation Planning. The main methodological framework encompasses predictive modeling (TreeNet, stochastic gradient boosting) and the Strategic Conservation Planning Tool ‘Marxan’. Overall, six models were created by using mistnet data (fall migration) of five selected index species (Arctic Warbler, Yellow Wagtail, Bluethroat, Siberian Rubythroat & Black- faced Bunting) as well as a by developing a ‘Species Richness Index’ (songbirds) and choosing widely used predictive environmental layers. In northern Russia and Alaska, most contiguous areas with a high index of occurrence are concentrated on the coastline of the Pacific Rim with smaller patterns in the interior and differences between their extents. In central-east Asia contiguous areas were found along the coastline stretching deeper inland than for the other regions. For the ‘Species Richness Index’, valuable areas were mostly predicted for the areas along the border of China and Russia, and comprise large parts of the Manchurian forest (deciduous). In general, it’s notable that the characteristics of the predicted hotspots seem to be linked to the habitat preferences of the selected songbirds during the breeding season. At the same time the generally extensive contiguous areas with a high index of occurrence indicate a higher variability in habitat use during fall migration than during the breeding season, too. Moreover the results indicate broad-front migration and putting the concept of a few and narrow migration hotspots in doubt. Nevertheless, the areas with a high index of occurrence have to be seen in view of the actual availability of high-quality staging sites as well. In the framework of Strategic Conservation Planning, five reserve solution scenarios with different focuses (Species Richness, boreal index Species, subboreal index species & all species with consideration of vulnerable areas) were created by using a simulated annealing algorithm implemented in Marxan. In general, only a low percentage (10 - 31 %) of the current protection network covers the reserves for the selected index species generated by Marxan. All reserve solutions should be seen as a first approach and public baseline for future conservation planning processes whereby there is a need of further refinement and assessment throughout a stakeholder’s involvement. Nevertheless, because this is the first Top-down approach for the given study area, the results are important to conservation planners for incorporating areas of high conservation value for migratory songbirds.